Super technology and the singularity

[Super Existence]

Raymond Kurzwell is a futurist.

He basically speaks of an insanely cool theory called the singularity where science and techology (largely assisted by as yet unmade super computers) are so fast at developing new techonologies that it is practically instantaneous. No deleopment time just a few seconds for your personal nano fabricator to make this new thing for you and the rest of the world.

The guy believes by 2020 computers will be as smart as a human and by 2045 computers will be a billion times more intelligent than every human on earth combined. It is around 2045 we reach the singularity.

And for anyone who thinks 'maybe'. This guy accurately predicted the fall of the Soviet union and the rise of the internet and wireless devices.

I hope he's right because he's saying for anyone now 30 years and under if we can just avoid being killed between now and 2040 computational power and medical science will have developed an effective immortality.

Some People may be happy with 80 years but not me I have things to do.

He also said by 22 mdiecal science will be a thousand times more advanced than today and will mean that for every subsequent passing year human life extension will also add a year. (apparentely 3-4 months of life expectancy were added in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and treatments).

I'm the most untechnophobic person you could meet so this guy is the new messiah for me.

Anyway read all the rest of his predictions here at Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#...ines_.281990.29

[*Jess♥]

sounds a bit like scientology to me....

nah, just kidding.. but well sometimes when somebody gets a couple of things right, soe of the things they got wrong are brushed under the carpet.

the problem with computers is that they are maybe good with numbers but they aren't creative.

[*zeo]

Funny you should mention that Ryuki as they are already set to change that little problem...

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/briefly-the-vis.html

Though I believe the singularity point will not happen in our lifetime.

The Human Brain would not be so easily matched and exceeded.

For example his prediction about when a computer will first beat a human at chess may have been correct but the actual details of that match is that they did not play fair. They reprogrammed the computer after every match, so the computer did not adapt and it used brute force to beat its opponent and thus only won because they exhausted the human player.

So in my opinion computers have yet to beat a human at chess without using brute force computation, as I don't consider being super fast as the same as being intelligent.

Just because a computer can calculate probable move patterns that would take a human centuries to do doesn't make a computer smart, just incredibly fast.

Though if they do manage to make neuro-chip technology that would provide a major jump in computer potential intelligence, but even a human brain takes years to fill with knowledge and experiences.

Like that movie "Bicentennial Man", though a clearly fictional story it gives a reasonable idea on how long it would likely take to actually match a human mind as the main character of the Robin Williams robot took 200 years, even with the full potential to match a human mind, to fully develop all aspects of humanity. Even excluding emotions from the equation it would take even longer for singularity in my opinion.

Never mind the Resources needed to implement that future isn't available yet, which is something many futurist consistently fail to take into account.

The old isn't replaced by the new overnight after all, otherwise all our trains would have been replaced with mono-rails, etc.

We already have the technology to make significant changes to the world but do not do so because of the lack of Resources and time needed to implement those changes.

[*Youngtusk]

I wouldn't be supprised if we make use of either stem cells or nano-bots within our natural life time. After that, our life times are theoretically as long as we want them to be. If we can use stem cells to reconstruct nerves and brain cells, and use nanobots to administer them, we've got it made in terms of potential.

Then we'll see singularity in our life time

[*Jess♥]

what about teh built in DNA clock?

[*zeo]

what about teh built in DNA clock?

Will still be a problem for the forseeable future, it's just the potential is there to go beyond it.

But there are many factors in our DNA that determine lifespan and we don't know all of them, nor what would happen if we circumnavigate them.

For example your ears and nose never stop growing through your life, something is going to have to be done to deal with that eventually if you live forever.

Also you can't cut out cell death altogether otherwise no cells would die and you would be riddled with cancer, etc. and/or just keep on growing non-stop.

So there are a lot of hurdles to go through first, and even with a limitless supply of stem cells, there is still the issue of preserving DNA for long periods of time and that is something stem cells won't solve on its own.

[*Jess♥]

the best thing i think they can do in that case is to find a more stable nucleic acid. then they can find a way to copy the genetic information across from dna into this other NA as a storage medium.

maybe they can store it in cells and have a form of mitochondria that circumvents the normal processes and overwrites the dna at each cell replication?

bah, I'm just being fanciful now anyhow.. I wouldn't want to live forever.

[CustodianGuyver]

I hope this technology never comes out. My reason can you Imagine a immortal George W Bush. I sure don't want too. This sort of super technology would probably come out in few thousands of years, if it is even possible to make this stuff.

Plus we are not ready for something like that anyway.

EDITED You don't want a computer to be super smart anyway. Sky net from terminator movies could turn into a nightmare reality if computer become thousands off times smarter than us.

Edited August 20, 2008 by CustodianGuyver

[Super Existence]

Most futurists these days believe that by the time computers become self aware we'll be mostly cybernetic ourselves and thus too similar to computers to pose a threat.

[*V Guyver]

there would be bigger problems as computers become advance, virus's can prove a disaster with AI. Imagine a an automated robot servent suddenly infected with a virus, and reprogrammed to spy, kidnap, murder, or steal from it's owners.

[durendal]

With any significant advance in technology, there is an equivalent drawback. Like mentioned, if all things go digital, there is the risk of a virus spreading thus wiping out everything. And this virus is harder to contain than the Black Plague as it spreads instantatnously.

I'm not anti technology, I just approach technology with caution, as with everything, too much of it is dangerous. As we grow dependent on technology, we live in a much more confortable life. Thus making the human weak independently. There was a time when man can live a healthy life without taking anything. In todays society, you need to take vitamins just to stay healthy.

[CustodianGuyver]

Most futurists these days believe that by the time computers become self aware we'll be mostly cybernetic ourselves and thus too similar to computers to pose a threat.

Yeah I read that guys Kruzwell theroy on wikipedia link provided on this thread. I like myself to be enhanced but all organinc like space marines are designed for war. I wanna be designed to be ultimate love machine.

Still as I am now only 500x stronger,faster and 500x more inteligient. Not become a emotionless Cyborg machine. Machines cannot make love to a woman, but super geneticaly enhanced human would. :lol: It would only be 500 times better too.

I see this technology only benefiting super rich anyway. Don't think they will wanna do any upgrades on poor or middle income people anyway. Machines will replace poor people who work at factories and mines. They will exterminate poor and middle people only very rich and super rich will exist in this nightmare society.

Very rich will live forever and become utterly insane rulers too. Human is not designed to live 100000 million years anyway.

I really hope that this futurestic guy is wrong in his predictions. I maybe see something similar what that guy described in about say 2 million years. He was saying by 2099 we will be able to convert universal materials like planets,suns,cosmic particles and other stuff in the universe into super advanced computer AI.

That to me sounds like pure fantasy lol.

Reminds of an Eldar race before their fall. They where able to move suns and planets at their will. Create and destroy different alien life forms too. Creators in Guyver series seem to have also super technology. I mean ark the living ships that can grow similar to humans is super advanced technology.

That guy has watched too much Anime asian kung fu martia arts movies and is sounding like that 360 live fella hahaha. :lol:

Never the less it is something interesting to talk about. When I think of super advanced technology I usually think military technology. Example gears are mechs in xenogear game story.

These mechs are powered by deus system that is connected to zohar a device with limitless amount of energy.

Also these mech gears evolve when they come into contact with anima relics. Xenogears has most insanely power full mechs out off any other fictional universe in my opinion. 1 off these will give any Gundam type run for it's money.

1 more thing I wonder if we do get super technology 1 day. That we will cause some other opening in the universe. Like another dimension where things live

that will wipe us all out.

Universe is beyond insanely massive. Do other realities exist? Probably who knows. We should not play god with super technology, because you can never tell what you might create or unleash from other universal dimensions.

I love to imagine stuff, but that guy seems to have smoked some powerfull mariunna if you ask me if he belives in that.

I definetly not wanna become a Cyborg or android or machine with no love handle. No love handle to put in woman's hole of creation no thanks.

Guyver yes please. Means I can own slice blast stuff apart. After that fun I can still deactivate my organic armor to a boost dimension shagg few sluts and repeat. Guyver brings those benefits while still keeping my humanity intact.

[*V Guyver]

machines cannot make love? Well then can simulate sex... just say hello to a vibrator, the lonely woman's best friend. If they can't improve in something in that alone within a hundred years they we are probably not as advanced as we thought.

I take this guys predictions with a grain of salt. He's no way near as intuitive as Jules Verne. His predictions taken from wikipedia:

A mural in Tampa, Florida commemorating Verne's From the Earth to the Moon.Jules Verne's novels have been noted for being startlingly accurate anticipations of modern times. Paris in the 20th Century is an often cited example of this as it arguably describes air conditioning, automobiles, the Internet, television, and other modern conveniences very similar to their real world counterparts.

Another example is From the Earth to the Moon, which is uncannily similar to the real Apollo Program, as three astronauts are launched from the Florida peninsula and recovered through a splash landing. In the book, the spacecraft is launched from "Tampa Town"; Tampa, Florida is approximately 130 miles from NASA's actual launching site at Cape Canaveral.

In other works, Verne predicted the inventions of helicopters, submarines, projectors, jukeboxes, and other later devices.

He also predicted the existence of underwater hydrothermal vents that were not discovered until years after he wrote about them.

He actually made other predictions in his works, and they aren't included in wikipedia for some reason. There wasn't a book released until just a decade ago that had been sealed in his vault. To everyone's shock, it turned out that he had predicted exactly how France (and in general how major cities around the world) would be like 100 years later after he wrote the book. It was never released because his publisher didn't like it as it was too dark and cold for a future. A shame really that it's not well known. It was called " Paris in the 20th Century" and wasn't released until 1994.

I expect everyone to be drinking out of a dehumidifier soon (dehumidifiers just make nice clean water from around you, human populations in general to begin starving due to over hunting of fish. More wars due to growing populations, massive droughts due to lack of clean water (Check out the situation in Europe) and for humans to start massive migrations to the antarctic.

[durendal]

Well, I believe that all those prediction will be fulfilled if there is a catalyst. And that catalyst is the discovery of efficient energy that is more powerful than nuclear, can come in small portable size and very cheap to reproduce. Since technology depends on economy, if the economy cannot solve the energy problems, then the development of advance technology would be stunted. I believe there there is a need for an energy revolution. Solving the energy problem would mean the downfall of major fuel companies.

[*zeo]

Machines cannot make love to a woman,

So what do you think Jude Law's character in the movie A.I. primary function was?

Never mind the economic factors that will practically make it sell itself...

I expect everyone to be drinking out of a dehumidifier soon (dehumidifiers just make nice clean water from around you, human populations in general to begin starving due to over hunting of fish. More wars due to growing populations, massive droughts due to lack of clean water (Check out the situation in Europe) and for humans to start massive migrations to the antarctic.

They already have dehumidifier water machines, they just call them AirWater Machines.

This fish thing is a real problem but they are working on solutions and we won't have a problem with droughts unless you're in a poor area since we can extract fresh water from just about any source. Like turning sea water into fresh water, etc. So as need arises it'll get done... Populationg growth seems to be slowing but who knows... though we are more likely to colonize the moon before we colonize the artic otherwise the polar bears will solve the overpopulation problem real quick.

[durendal]

Well, for the problems of food sources like fish, we currently have what we call engineered chicken. (No, these are not headless chicken that run around randomly. although it would be funny and freaky at the same time.) These chickens have been engineered to grow bigger in a shorter amount of time. The problem of world hunger is not really the lack of food, but the lack of Resources to send food or cultivate food for those who needs them.

[*zeo]

Yes, distribution is a big problem. Tons of food go to waste every day because it doesn't go where it is needed in time. Not to mention political factors in which such Resources are held basically in ransom to maintain power.

[CustodianGuyver]

Well, I believe that all those prediction will be fulfilled if there is a catalyst. And that catalyst is the discovery of efficient energy that is more powerful than nuclear, can come in small portable size and very cheap to reproduce. Since technology depends on economy, if the economy cannot solve the energy problems, then the development of advance technology would be stunted. I believe there there is a need for an energy revolution. Solving the energy problem would mean the downfall of major fuel companies.

There was 1 guy in Serbia who made a car that runs on hydro water. Uses only 5% of fuel this car. Mobil massive oil company sent him 5 million dollar check to burn the car along with plans on how to make that car. The guy done excatly that and if tried to refuse mobil's offer his life would be only few months longer at best. There over few million ways you can make a man dissapear and make it look like a robbery type murder or accident.

I don't think that America is prepared to lose over 200 trillion dollars or more in oil sales profit and to allow some new form of energy to come into existence. You try develop new energy source that will threaten their oil sales I promise you your life will be between 1 month to 4 months max long. You will be lucky if you live more than a year.

Want a reason then look no further than Iraq war. These people are prepared to kill innocent civilans and make up crap lies about Saddam's goverment in order to obtain oil. Democracy is not involved by entering other country with tanks and armed with machine guns. The reason they attacked Iraq is that they actually knew 100% that Iraq does not have a nuclear bomb ready made.

They don't seem to be to keen on touching Iran or North Korea now since this guys have a nuclear bomb ready. Both of those countries are oil rich too that I mentioned.

Back on topic we have solar technology,powered by wind electricty and few other renewable energy sources that does not cause pollution at all.

Nuclear,oil and coal power are bad for our enviroment.

I like solar energy the best and I would not mind buying a car that runs on solar energy. No more paying for chicken fuel. I would not care if I pay $70000 Australian dollars for that car If I knew that I will never pay for fuel again. More power to solar energy.

I wonder if plasma energy type can be used to power homes electricity and big or small businesses.

I really like concept of anti matter application to energy type form, but that would take few thousand years at least for us to master that technology.

[*zeo]

There was 1 guy in Serbia who made a car that runs on hydro water. Uses only 5% of fuel this car. Mobil massive oil company sent him 5 million dollar check to burn the car along with plans on how to make that car. The guy done excatly that and if tried to refuse mobil's offer his life would be only few months longer at best. There over few million ways you can make a man dissapear and make it look like a robbery type murder or accident.

You do know Iceland is going completely Hydrogen? And virtually every major car manufacturer is producing either hybrid or full alternate fuel cars. In California they are selling fully electric sports cars.

Really the whole running your car on water is a scam just like unlimited energy sources scams. You can't get the hyrdogen and oxygen from water without a process of extraction that itself requires energy. So all you achieve is turn one form of energy into another. You don't eliminate oil, so long as oil is still the easiest way to get the energy. There isn't anywhere in the world were we can just drill for hydrogen, we have to extract it and that takes energy.

There may be some truth that oil companies may have slowed the progress of alternate fuel technology but they haven't stopped it. Just this year they will implement an inprovement in production that will reduce the cost of producing solar cells by 25%, cars are going to made more energy efficient with heat converters that will improve overall efficiency by several percentage points. Doing things like collecting waste heat and putting it to work, etc.

Over the past year the US has put so much effort into ethenol fuel that it has cost food prices to go up because of all the corn being allocated to ethenol fuel research.

Really you shouldn't believe all those conspiracy sites. And before believing everything you hear about the Iraq war try looking up the actual history of Saddam and facts like the fact he was abusing the Oil for Food Program to re-arm. Things like Russian made anti-stealth RADAR is hardly a food product to be paid for with oil. And it wasn't the US who kicked out the inspectors, why does everyone forget he was under responsibility from the Gulf War to disarm or the war would be continued? He kicked the inspectors out violating the cease fire agreement he made.

I think people just try to oversimpify the war, we were wrong on how far along Saddam was in re-arming but the fact is he was trying and would eventually have succeeded. The guy has a history showing exactly how ruthless he could be and his sons were just as bad if not worse. So this would have continued on to the next generation.

The number of mass graves found in Iraq puts Saddam's reign right up there with Rwandan genocide of 1994, Pol Pot's Cambodian killing fields in the 1970s, and the Nazi Holocaust of World War II. Since over 400,000 bodies have been found so far and every now and then a mass grave is still being discovered. The guy even used nerve gas on his own people.

So the reasons for the war may have been exaggerated, too soon. But they weren't outright lies. Much of it was simply due to bad intel, since decades of budget cuts has left spy agencies with little Resources to confirm what exiled Iraqies were telling us.

This is not to say oil had no factor, just that it wasn't the only factor. The war was actually justified if not fully warranted. So the one thing the US government is guilty of is jumping the gun and the total mismanagement of the post war. The War had cost America hundreds of billions, over 4000 soldiers have died with over 30,000 wounded and that's just US casualties. We helped forgive much of Iraq's pre-war depts and are rebuilding the countries infrastructure.

It's just that a series of bad decisions is what put this war into its present negative status, but hopefully we can still fix it and we have at least made some progress along those lines and even gotten to the point that withdrawal plans are being considered as Iraq shows signs the people are finally taking control.

Anyway, back on topic, Intel recently announced they believe we will become a race of cyborgs by 2050, at least the part in which we can plug into technology like in the Matrix movies.

Intel: We will be borg by 2050

A good site to check for environmentally friendly tech development...

http://www.goodcleantech.com/

[CustodianGuyver]

lol we will be borg like by 2050. I am staying human completely. Can you imagine some person who does not like you uploading a virus into your Cyborg body via another computer so yeah no thanks . Like example of virus murder your family. You will do it since your body is mostly Cyborg if not all off it.

Someone reprograms you to self destruct. Overload your Cyborg circuits the terroists will have a field day with our mechanical bodies.

Only upgrade I will be doing is enhance my years off living. With nano machines and becoming stronger,faster and more smarter, but still retaining my complete humanity. Just become cordinator like from Gundam seed series. None of that Cyborg mechanical upgrades. I will rust if i get out in the rain.

[*zeo]

First Fully-Unmanned Machine Combat in History Heralds Robotic Apocalypse

[*V Guyver]

the world needs more robotics based off Johnny Five!

[Super Existence]

I think the topic of death in relation to this issue is an interesting one.

May people would not choose to live forever fearing the stagnation of the mind when left alive for so long but I think it will reach a point were euthanasia and suicide will become a way of life. So instead of people not wishing to die, many will look forwards to it as a relief.

Won't that be a good thing?

People will live better for not fearing death because there is none unless you choose it, so death will become an option instead of an inevitablility.

[*zeo]

Speaking of Johnny 5. . .

Johnny 5 Apparently Still Alive 22 Years Later

[*V Guyver]

yes, I heard that about the remake. I have to admit, the movies weren't great, bit I really love the robot and it's voice actor's very lively and well done personality. I think only R2-D2 and Wall-E have earned as much love from me when it comes to robotics.

As a kid I always wondered about how it would be in a future when your mind is placed in a machine. Technichally you still die, because your body and mind dies. But your memories and possibly your personality may still remain in a machine. Though I have no clue when that will be possible. At best, we can only map and make a blueprint of your mind so far. But it's still a very cool concept.

With this technology you could possibly keep someone on par like Einstein around for centuries still helping humanity. But then again, you can preserve a monster like Stalin or a madman like Hitler around for eternity and cause endless conflict.